Search, PPC, Performance, Social, Turkey

The real battle between Google and Facebook is for what?

Some parts of a recent blogpost from a Hungarian online marketing blogger created buzz on the web and another Hungarian search aficionado just reacted on this saying ‘We can’t make our living from just Liking’. The ominous saying from the first blogger just looked like this: ‘Within 1-2 years Facebook will launch an advertising system for the content network (…) that will place ads based on the clicking and Like-ing behaviour of the users.’

Take a look on the trends: Google launched Google Buzz. YouTube has recently launched a bunch of new social features. Google’s just recently launched its remarketing tool. What are these news about? They mean two focus points: connecting users with each other to create a personal network and a focus on content network to enhance effectiveness of campaigns.

But take an even broader view. Facebook has a unique network of personal relationships and profiles, but they don’t have an outlook on the web. Google has a unique database about the whole web but lacking user profiles and personal networks. (The first problem will be solved by a recently announced Like button, for the latter I mentioned some of Google’s efforts above.)

And let’s talk about a third phenomena, which is the world of statistitians and mathematicians: the recommendation systems. Recommendation systems are based on huge contextual databases of people - and their taste, choices and behaviour. For example if we have enough data about a movie: what kind of people like it and what kind of people dislike, a recommendation system can predict whether a person who has never seen that will like it or not.

We need to have two kinds of data for this: extended personal profiles with a lot of like (and dislike) data, plus a wide range of data about similar products.

You got the point? Google is very good in the second one and tries to collect the first, Facebook has the first and tries to collect the second.

But why? Of course for the advertising dollars. The company that succeeds in building up the largest database of these two can predict advertising effectiveness better. Meaning it can spend advertising dollars more effectively. As well meaning that the company will rule the online advertising world.

TechCrunch’s just recently published a guest article analyzing the same thing, the potential in Facebook as a gatekeeper of the world’s identity, even saying Google can become he next Microsoft. :-)

This battle has not started yet, as Facebook is yet having an advertising network product. But this will come.

If this theory is true it makes easy to predict some future happenings:

• Facebook will need a dislike button. I’m pretty sure they will have it soon.
• Facebook will buy a web analytics company. If I were them, I would go for Adobe’s Omniture.
• Facebook will need an adserving company as well. Hard to break DoubleClick’s domination but why not try?

And additionally - or being absolutely inline with the above idea - Facebook’s now have a real chance to move the whole web (and no question to that Open Graph will add a measurably large chunk of the web) towards a more semantic world.

Finally here’s a nice video from Kate Ray - with a lot of interviews from the web’s masterminds about being semantic.

Web 3.0 from Kate Ray on Vimeo.